SenateDB Senate ballot analysis

How to vote card usage

These tables cross-tabulate the number of votes that exactly match a how-to-vote card issued at the 2016 federal Senate election.

Explanation

How to vote cards are composed by the HowToVoteCardGeneration class, using the cards listed on the ABC election website. Ballots are then matched against these cards by the MatchingHowToVoteCalculator class.

Many how-to-vote cards (eg from the Jacquie Lambie Network) simply told voters where to put their first preference, and then asked them to mark the rest as they liked. Others (eg the Motoring Enthusiasts) gave suggestions about which parties to preference, but left the voter to choose the order. Still others (eg Sustainable Australia) specified less than 6 preferences, and asked the voter to choose the rest.

To ensure comparisons between like and like, only how-to-vote cards that unambiguously specified at least 6 preferences above the line have been included in this analysis. In order to be considered to match a how to vote card, a ballot must

  • Match the above-the-line preferences on the how to vote card exactly,
  • Not specify more or fewer preferences than on the how-to-vote card,
  • Not use a tick or cross to express its first preference,
  • Not have marked below the line at all.

Bad how-to-vote cards

In Tasmania, the One Nation how-to-vote card listed the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party (group AG) as its third preference. In fact, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party was in group P, and there was no group AG on the ballot paper. SenateDB corrects this mistake.

In New South Wales, the Veteran’s party how-to-vote card listed the Cycling Party as fourth preference, and the Science Party as the fifth preference. In fact, these parties shared group I, and so had to be preferenced together. Because it would have been impossible to follow this how-to-vote card and have completed a formal ballot paper, it has been ignored.

Tables

National total

  Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots %
Total 2,010,114 13,838,900 14.53%

Nationally by first-preferenced party

Party Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for party %
Liberal Party of Australia 1,322,391 4,821,314 27.43%
Australian Labor Party 522,915 4,123,084 12.68%
The Greens 112,670 1,197,657 9.41%
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 17,617 593,013 2.97%
Australian Liberty Alliance 8,813 102,982 8.56%
Family First Party 6,611 191,112 3.46%
Australian Christians 4,492 66,525 6.75%
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 3,542 192,923 1.84%
Animal Justice Party 3,445 159,373 2.16%
Katter’s Australian Party 2,360 53,199 4.44%
Glenn Lazarus Team 1,801 45,149 3.99%
Rise Up Australia Party 1,293 36,424 3.55%
Australian Sex Party 1,078 97,882 1.10%
Democratic Labour Party 322 94,510 0.34%
Socialist Alliance 188 9,968 1.89%
Australian Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP) Party 170 69,247 0.25%
Marriage Equality 127 44,982 0.28%
Pirate Party Australia 106 35,184 0.30%
Science Party / Cyclists Party 73 24,673 0.30%
Liberal Democratic Party 56 298,915 0.02%
Australian Cyclists Party 34 25,438 0.13%
Veterans Party 6 10,391 0.06%
Science Party 3 5,405 0.06%
Renewable Energy Party 1 29,983 0.00%
Total 2,010,114 13,838,900 14.53%

By state

State Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for party %
VIC 691,540 3,500,237 19.76%
NSW 688,074 4,492,197 15.32%
QLD 295,329 2,723,166 10.85%
WA 236,394 1,366,182 17.30%
SA 42,941 1,061,165 4.05%
ACT 28,508 254,767 11.19%
TAS 13,744 339,159 4.05%
NT 13,584 102,027 13.31%
Total 2,010,114 13,838,900 14.53%

By group in the Australian Capital Territory

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
F (Liberal Party of Australia) 16,472 84,615 19.47%
C (Australian Labor Party) 9,317 96,667 9.64%
H (The Greens) 2,697 41,006 6.58%
D (Rise Up Australia Party) 22 2,523 0.87%
Total 28,508 254,767 11.19%

By group in New South Wales

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
F (Liberal & Nationals) 466,311 1,610,626 28.95%
N (Australian Labor Party) 181,766 1,405,088 12.94%
AL (The Greens) 31,603 332,860 9.49%
S (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) 2,381 184,012 1.29%
J (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) 2,350 88,837 2.65%
AM (Australian Liberty Alliance) 2,273 29,795 7.63%
AB (Animal Justice Party) 895 37,991 2.36%
C (Family First Party) 122 53,027 0.23%
AG (Australian Sex Party) 93 30,038 0.31%
L (Socialist Alliance) 76 5,382 1.41%
I (Science Party / Cyclists Party) 54 18,367 0.29%
H (Democratic Labour Party) 54 51,510 0.10%
M (Rise Up Australia Party) 45 7,538 0.60%
R (Pirate Party Australia) 43 11,418 0.38%
D (Liberal Democratic Party) 8 139,007 0.01%
Total 688,074 4,492,197 15.32%

By group in the Northern Territory

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
E (Country Liberals (NT)) 6,208 37,156 16.71%
F (Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory) Branch) 6,020 38,197 15.76%
D (The Greens) 1,284 11,003 11.67%
A (Rise Up Australia Party) 72 6,768 1.06%
Total 13,584 102,027 13.31%

By group in Queensland

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
G (Liberal National Party of Queensland) 183,011 960,467 19.05%
D (Australian Labor Party) 80,870 717,524 11.27%
X (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) 11,767 250,126 4.70%
AK (The Greens) 6,879 188,323 3.65%
N (Australian Liberty Alliance) 4,677 29,392 15.91%
T (Family First Party) 3,086 52,453 5.88%
I (Katter’s Australian Party) 2,360 48,807 4.84%
AC (Glenn Lazarus Team) 1,801 45,149 3.99%
Y (Rise Up Australia Party) 345 5,734 6.02%
H (Animal Justice Party) 291 32,306 0.90%
AF (Australian Christians) 85 9,686 0.88%
V (Australian Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP) Party) 84 30,157 0.28%
M (Pirate Party Australia) 30 10,342 0.29%
Q (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) 16 29,571 0.05%
A (Australian Cyclists Party) 13 19,933 0.07%
S (Democratic Labour Party) 8 15,443 0.05%
AJ (Veterans Party) 6 4,534 0.13%
Total 295,329 2,723,166 10.85%

By group in South Australia

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
H (Liberal Party of Australia) 30,674 345,767 8.87%
B (Australian Labor Party) 5,390 289,902 1.86%
N (Family First Party) 2,984 30,464 9.80%
D (The Greens) 2,582 62,329 4.14%
O (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) 597 31,621 1.89%
S (Australian Liberty Alliance) 276 4,435 6.22%
Q (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) 265 7,815 3.39%
U (Animal Justice Party) 140 8,981 1.56%
R (Australian Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP) Party) 28 12,091 0.23%
E (Australian Cyclists Party) 5 1,664 0.30%
Total 42,941 1,061,165 4.05%

By group in Tasmania

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
F (Liberal Party of Australia) 9,824 110,318 8.91%
B (Australian Labor Party) 2,306 113,935 2.02%
C (The Greens) 1,490 37,840 3.94%
P (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) 56 4,688 1.19%
I (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) 27 8,700 0.31%
N (Australian Liberty Alliance) 22 1,112 1.98%
A (Family First Party) 12 6,692 0.18%
H (Australian Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP) Party) 4 4,493 0.09%
R (Science Party) 3 1,306 0.23%
Total 13,744 339,159 4.05%

By group in Victoria

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
AF (Liberal & Nationals) 446,721 1,158,800 38.55%
D (Australian Labor Party) 182,633 1,075,658 16.98%
AK (The Greens) 53,387 380,499 14.03%
C (Animal Justice Party) 1,928 60,780 3.17%
Y (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) 1,758 63,528 2.77%
H (Australian Christians) 1,697 34,763 4.88%
AL (Australian Sex Party) 985 54,128 1.82%
AG (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) 657 36,669 1.79%
AI (Rise Up Australia Party) 641 10,166 6.31%
O (Family First Party) 363 39,747 0.91%
R (Democratic Labour Party) 260 18,152 1.43%
U (Australian Liberty Alliance) 253 23,080 1.10%
X (Marriage Equality) 127 17,139 0.74%
Z (Socialist Alliance) 67 2,597 2.58%
J (Pirate Party Australia) 33 13,424 0.25%
E (Science Party / Cyclists Party) 19 11,567 0.16%
AH (Liberal Democratic Party) 11 55,501 0.02%
Total 691,540 3,500,237 19.76%

By group in Western Australia

Group Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for group %
X (Liberal Party of Australia) 163,170 525,879 31.03%
D (Australian Labor Party) 54,613 386,113 14.14%
J (The Greens (WA)) 12,748 143,797 8.87%
W (Australian Christians) 2,710 22,076 12.28%
P (Australian Liberty Alliance) 1,312 15,168 8.65%
R (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation) 1,087 55,026 1.98%
B (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers) 198 25,343 0.78%
K (Animal Justice Party) 191 12,687 1.51%
Q (Rise Up Australia Party) 168 3,695 4.55%
S (Australian Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP) Party) 54 25,047 0.22%
G (Socialist Alliance) 45 1,989 2.26%
AB (Family First Party) 44 8,729 0.50%
Z (Liberal Democratic Party) 37 10,771 0.34%
N (Australian Cyclists Party) 16 2,679 0.60%
O (Renewable Energy Party) 1 4,617 0.02%
Total 236,394 1,366,182 17.30%

By division

State Division Ballots matching an HTV card Total formal ballots for division %
VIC Corangamite 26,605 101,208 26.29%
VIC Goldstein 24,837 94,266 26.35%
VIC Higgins 23,701 92,981 25.49%
VIC Flinders 23,677 102,326 23.14%
VIC McMillan 23,558 103,623 22.73%
VIC Bendigo 23,202 98,858 23.47%
VIC Dunkley 22,888 92,801 24.66%
VIC Kooyong 22,408 90,502 24.76%
VIC McEwen 22,050 116,948 18.85%
WA Curtin 21,873 86,950 25.16%
VIC Deakin 21,166 90,788 23.31%
VIC Ballarat 21,107 99,124 21.29%
VIC La Trobe 20,969 95,866 21.87%
VIC Jagajaga 20,877 92,862 22.48%
NSW Robertson 20,544 97,333 21.11%
VIC Casey 20,350 92,985 21.89%
NSW Cook 20,276 93,322 21.73%
VIC Corio 20,179 95,512 21.13%
VIC Menzies 19,673 89,299 22.03%
NSW Gilmore 19,653 103,993 18.90%
VIC Chisholm 19,564 87,447 22.37%
VIC Murray 19,252 91,912 20.95%
VIC Wannon 19,178 88,716 21.62%
NSW Bradfield 18,968 95,426 19.88%
NSW Wentworth 18,915 86,997 21.74%
NSW Mackellar 18,672 96,196 19.41%
VIC Aston 18,583 86,266 21.54%
VIC Gippsland 18,199 91,696 19.85%
VIC Isaacs 17,983 93,032 19.33%
NSW Berowra 17,957 96,129 18.68%
NSW Dobell 17,759 98,944 17.95%
NSW Warringah 17,737 90,669 19.56%
WA Tangney 17,541 84,692 20.71%
NSW Richmond 17,533 98,660 17.77%
NSW Hughes 17,441 95,574 18.25%
NSW Page 17,422 105,314 16.54%
WA Canning 17,251 86,088 20.04%
NSW North Sydney 17,139 95,479 17.95%
NSW Lyne 17,003 101,063 16.82%
VIC Melbourne Ports 16,978 87,080 19.50%
WA Moore 16,760 89,071 18.82%
VIC Bruce 16,755 83,947 19.96%
NSW Macquarie 16,743 95,408 17.55%
NSW Eden-Monaro 16,739 97,685 17.14%
WA Forrest 16,572 87,433 18.95%
WA Stirling 16,438 84,731 19.40%
NSW Mitchell 16,431 93,531 17.57%
NSW Hume 16,366 97,350 16.81%
NSW Paterson 16,305 102,146 15.96%
VIC Maribyrnong 16,128 94,811 17.01%
NSW Bennelong 16,033 94,573 16.95%
VIC Indi 15,871 93,028 17.06%
VIC Batman 15,813 94,648 16.71%
ACT Canberra 15,778 131,653 11.98%
NSW Reid 15,712 92,958 16.90%
NSW Cowper 15,676 105,049 14.92%
WA Perth 15,434 85,562 18.04%
NSW Shortland 15,434 99,696 15.48%
NSW Banks 15,422 92,859 16.61%
VIC Hotham 15,402 87,677 17.57%
VIC Mallee 15,292 87,316 17.51%
QLD Brisbane 15,175 96,743 15.69%
VIC Lalor 15,014 107,821 13.92%
VIC Melbourne 14,989 96,863 15.47%
NSW Kingsford Smith 14,947 94,825 15.76%
NSW Lindsay 14,897 97,434 15.29%
WA Fremantle 14,852 86,272 17.22%
WA Swan 14,842 83,100 17.86%
WA Hasluck 14,771 83,211 17.75%
QLD Griffith 14,595 94,267 15.48%
NSW Newcastle 14,239 101,094 14.08%
NSW Riverina 14,213 99,749 14.25%
QLD Bowman 14,102 92,954 15.17%
VIC Wills 14,091 96,962 14.53%
QLD Lilley 13,989 95,588 14.63%
VIC Gellibrand 13,872 92,824 14.94%
VIC Holt 13,808 101,061 13.66%
NSW New England 13,673 98,825 13.84%
NSW Farrer 13,648 98,050 13.92%
NSW Grayndler 13,626 92,786 14.69%
NSW Whitlam 13,626 100,060 13.62%
VIC Scullin 13,459 96,802 13.90%
NSW Cunningham 13,207 98,289 13.44%
WA Cowan 13,059 83,895 15.57%
WA Burt 12,907 86,071 15.00%
NSW Parkes 12,901 94,716 13.62%
VIC Gorton 12,827 99,397 12.90%
QLD Ryan 12,742 95,859 13.29%
ACT Fenner 12,730 123,114 10.34%
NSW Calare 12,593 101,908 12.36%
NSW Greenway 12,375 93,556 13.23%
NSW Sydney 12,329 92,677 13.30%
WA Pearce 12,217 89,503 13.65%
QLD Fadden 12,194 89,730 13.59%
NSW Barton 12,046 90,875 13.26%
WA Brand 12,000 83,309 14.40%
NSW Macarthur 11,946 92,622 12.90%
QLD Moncrieff 11,919 86,929 13.71%
VIC Calwell 11,235 90,982 12.35%
WA O’Connor 11,150 88,046 12.66%
NSW Hunter 11,127 101,470 10.97%
QLD Dickson 11,030 91,690 12.03%
NSW Parramatta 10,960 87,315 12.55%
QLD Wright 10,231 89,811 11.39%
QLD Petrie 10,109 93,917 10.76%
QLD Moreton 10,088 86,424 11.67%
QLD Bonner 9,942 90,759 10.95%
QLD Rankin 9,782 87,211 11.22%
QLD Longman 9,671 92,881 10.41%
QLD Hinkler 9,666 89,554 10.79%
QLD Forde 9,331 86,059 10.84%
QLD Fairfax 9,210 95,601 9.63%
QLD Fisher 9,189 86,931 10.57%
QLD McPherson 8,969 89,343 10.04%
NSW McMahon 8,872 89,555 9.91%
NT Solomon 8,839 57,000 15.51%
NSW Werriwa 8,816 91,662 9.62%
WA Durack 8,727 78,248 11.15%
QLD Oxley 8,526 84,412 10.10%
QLD Kennedy 8,379 86,698 9.66%
QLD Blair 8,265 87,784 9.42%
NSW Watson 8,149 87,200 9.35%
QLD Wide Bay 8,135 91,228 8.92%
NSW Chifley 7,980 88,789 8.99%
QLD Leichhardt 7,921 92,437 8.57%
NSW Fowler 7,592 88,417 8.59%
QLD Dawson 7,580 91,665 8.27%
QLD Groom 7,538 92,084 8.19%
QLD Capricornia 7,496 89,065 8.42%
QLD Herbert 7,451 91,913 8.11%
SA Grey 7,428 90,793 8.18%
QLD Flynn 6,609 90,639 7.29%
NSW Blaxland 6,432 83,969 7.66%
QLD Maranoa 5,495 92,990 5.91%
NT Lingiari 4,745 45,027 10.54%
SA Boothby 4,608 98,242 4.69%
SA Mayo 4,587 95,749 4.79%
SA Sturt 4,510 94,640 4.77%
SA Barker 4,151 95,669 4.34%
SA Hindmarsh 3,912 100,105 3.91%
TAS Bass 3,814 66,777 5.71%
SA Adelaide 3,587 97,375 3.68%
SA Makin 3,174 96,111 3.30%
TAS Lyons 2,966 69,549 4.26%
TAS Franklin 2,767 70,216 3.94%
SA Wakefield 2,628 98,476 2.67%
TAS Braddon 2,530 65,724 3.85%
SA Kingston 2,511 95,095 2.64%
SA Port Adelaide 1,845 98,910 1.87%
TAS Denison 1,667 66,893 2.49%
Total ** 2,010,114 13,838,900 14.53%